AACS Fortnightly 
(Mondays) 
14th August 2023

From the Chairman’s Desk,

Niger – “It’s The Economy, Stupid”

Our title is a famous quote in 1992 by an American Politician and Elections Strategist, James Carville, when he was implying that the critical issue in the American polity during the difficult final years of George Bush Presidency, was the poor state of the economy. What masquerades as issues most times is simply a poor economy and the standard of living. Wrapped in the unfortunate coup in Niger is the danger it holds to Nigeria’s economic wellbeing, and therein lies the big worry of the government. It’s way beyond “leave them and let them do their thing”. No we can’t, but as captured in the opinion of the Chief Editor of ‘AACS Fortnightly’, an all out war is not a short answer and should not be the option https://lnkd.in/eVs9nnmU. The issues are way too complicated even as we understand the huge conundrum the ECOWAS sub regional bloc face.

Nigeria has committed over $4bn worth of projects to Niger, including a $2bn deal to build an oil pipeline and a refinery. The ongoing 5,600km Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline estimated at a cost of $30bn is a lifeline for our ailing economy and a guaranteed extra $25bn annual revenue arising from Europe’s thirst for gas, a gap created by the ongoing Russian/Ukrainian crisis. Similarly, the Russian economy is partly in the straits with the stop to European purchase of its Nordstrom project gas . The long standing “no dam” of the Niger River at the Niger end could also be at risk because a huge damming of the river would dry up the Kainji, Shiroro and Jebba hydro projects in Nigeria, and complicate our already precarious power generation debacle.

The critics of government must take a deep breath and know that this is a catch 22 situation with no easy answers. The nation did not invite this crisis, it was thrusted upon us and it would take some solving. The war option must however be avoided because it offers no wins, and is often a breeding ground for extremism as terrorist could capitalise on the violence and disruptions. A slate of sanctions, soft diplomacy, mediation by religious leaders and past political heads should continue to be encouraged. It’s not a silver bullet, but it offers a silver lining. What must be pushed is good governance across the sub region and political leaders sticking to term limits, rather than elongating tenors which is akin to dictatorship that coups bring.

Security is a foundation base of economic prosperity and an unending crisis provoking terrorism, banditry, displacements, arms proliferation must be avoided. The nation does not need a war theatre with Western and Russian interests across our 1,000km Northern border. Let’s also spare a thought to the Nigerian leadership at this near impossible time because this is a difficult distraction to a nation embarking on a tortuous journey of economic revamp.

Falil Ayo Abina

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