AACS Fortnightly
(Mondays)
23rd October 2023

From the Chairman’s Desk,

The Erratic FX Market

Grim news from the money market shows the naira (₦) sliding in value at the parallel market to north of ₦1,100 to $1. The aspiration for a unified rate still appears illusory, not to talk of an appreciation in the value of the Naira. The attendant inflation in a totally import dependent economy is best imagined.

At AACS, we advocated for the removal of subsidy on the dollar not only because the nation could not afford it but also because the most productive sector of the economy did not have access to the dollar subsidy, but rather the consumption industry was the principal beneficiary. The policy on foreign exchange is not wrong, what is wrong is our inability and unwillingness to cut our appetite for what we do not produce and focus our attention and subsidies on what we can produce that others outside our shores want. This is what restores the value of the naira. Spending in excess of $1.5bn monthly to defend the naira is unsustainable. Every nation at some point supports its currency especially if you produce enough to sell to others, but no one can afford an unhinged subsidy or defense of a currency when discipline does not curtail total consumption driven lifestyle. When the Chinese tilt the Yuan (¥), it’s because they are the factory of the world, and they are producing what the world wants to buy.

The CBN last week restored the 43 items hitherto excluded from the FX market. Again, this is not a wrong policy. The right thing was that we should have been producing the bulk of those items in the last eight years of the ban or tilt our appetite against it. We cannot wish away our lack of production and magically think the naira will gain strength.

The economic managers must be more adept in using smart policies to discourage the glutinous thirst for imported items, and shape the attention & incentives to local goods. This should be the thought process of Yemi Cardoso, Wale Edun and all other key drivers of the fiscal and monetary policies

Falil Ayo Abina & Vincent Ekenemchukwu Uwajeh

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/aacs-ng_fx-localproduction-consumption-activity-7122114497246285824-Ssg6?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop