AACS Fortnightly
(Mondays)
21st November 2022

From the Chairman’s Desk,

The Russian Ukrainian Conflict – The World just dodged a bullet

The critical deterrent to a world war save the establishment of the United Nations after the Second World War is the ‘MAD’ phenomenon. MAD means ‘Mutual Assured Destruction’, a concept that guarantees that in the event of an unfortunate war between the West (led by the United States – NATO) and the East (led by the Soviet bloc, now Russia), a guaranteed armageddon will occur, as there is enough nuclear armament in both blocs to wipe each other out. The ‘MAD’ concept has kept both sides off direct confrontation.

Following the start of the Eastern European conflict between Russia and Ukraine earlier this year, the risk of a war between the West and East blocs has been on the rise. Last week, a missile landed in the Polish border town of Przewodów (NATO territory), killing two Polish farmers. Ukraine was quick to label it a Russian missile, and tensions were sky high, as an attack on a NATO country implies an attack on all NATO nations (Article 5 of the NATO Convention), led by the US. Luckily for the world, Polish and NATO investigations pointed the responsibility to an accidental Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile. History of the last two World Wars warn us of what these errors could bring.

World War I started in 1914 after the assassination of the heir presumptive to the Austria-Hungary throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, by a Serbian nationalists group in protest to the control of the Bosnia & Herzegovina region. The assassination led to Austria-Hungary declaring war on Serbia, while Russia mobilized per their alliance to Serbia, causing Germany to declare war on Russia and its ally, France. A few days later, Great Britain (ally of France) declared war on Germany. The second World War began in 1939, after Hitler’s invasion of Poland, which prompted Great Britain and France to declare war on Germany to honour their guarantee of Poland’s borders. Having stayed neutral for two years, the US formally entered the war after the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. A chain reaction of chaos ensues when alliances are provoked.

The UN must play its role now, and take the world off the brink of this danger, as inflation, food supply shortages, escalating poverty, citizen displacements and sky high gas prices crushing the entire world is significantly a direct consequence of this Russia/Ukrainian conflict. AACS is of the opinion that, as we insist on the sovereignty of Ukraine, there should be a way to ascertain Ukraine’s neutrality in the West-East tensions, to alleviate the fears expressed by Russia. To continue to feed egos on both sides while the world tethers around a war that could wipe off humanity as we know it, is purely a ‘joke’ taken too far.

Let the calm heads go to the negotiation table now!

Falil Ayo Abina

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